Below are the latest rate forecasts from the Big 6 banks. Averaging the forecasts, the Big 6 banks expect the overnight rate to rise about 1% by the end of 2022, meaning four quarter-point rate hikes by the Bank of Canada.
Looking ahead to the end of 2023, analysts from the big banks are calling for an additional three rate hikes, bringing the overnight rate to 1.75%.
| Target Rate: Year-end ’21 | Target Rate: Year-end ’22 | Target Rate: Year-end ’23 | 5-Year BoC Bond Yield: Year-end ’21 | 5-Year BoC Bond Yield: Year-end ’22 | |
| BMO | 0.25% | 1.25% | NA | 1.45% | 1.80% |
| CIBC | 0.25% | 1.00% | 1.75% | NA | NA |
| NBC | 0.25% | 1.50% | 1.75% | 1.40% | 1.90% |
| RBC | 0.25% | 1.00% | 1.75% | 1.25% | 1.65% |
| Scotiabank | 0.25% | 1.25% | 2.25% | 1.50% | 2.05% |
| TD Bank | 0.25% | 1.00% | 1.75% | 1.35% | 1.90% |